Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Minaur (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d8d699b69b8bfa74568526ca45e75b256a64684f3efdbc12e2e09808724f1a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Minaur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Minaur | 21c | 9,999$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.86 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Sinner | 79c | 9,034$7,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,897.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Minaur | 23c | 1,087$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Minaur | 14c | 953.15$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.24 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d36…68fdbacked Minaur | 23c | 869.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Sinner | 79c | 735.11$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.37 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…079ebacked Minaur | 34c | 505$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.9 | 416 | 45.4%189 W · 227 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…53cebacked Sinner | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sinner | 70c | 458.71$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.27 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed Minaur | 11c | 390.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Minaur | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e07…1f7ebacked Minaur | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…cf52backed Minaur | 21c | 193.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Sinner | 79c | 149$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Sinner | 78c | 90.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 600 | 55.7%334 W · 266 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Minaur | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Sinner | 76c | 52.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Sinner | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 750 | 61.7%463 W · 287 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a74…c861backed Sinner | 73c | 34.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Sinner | 79c | 31.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Minaur (+1.5)this page
- ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Jannik Sinner vs Alex de MinaurSinner won
- Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs MinaurSinner won
- Sinner vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Minaur: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Sinner vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Sinner vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.