Tennis · resolved market
Sinner vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e0b5de253fe6c1ba1f54849aff14d53f3054b366c22e6c70cfc8b9b02630ba1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $299,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $443,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $299,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3151…0977backed Over 2.5 | 19c | 95,437$18,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,133.1 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Over 2.5 | 19c | 40,000$7,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,600 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Over 2.5 | 19c | 6,250$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.5 | 346 | 50.6%175 W · 171 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over 2.5 | 1c | 4,958$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Over 2.5 | 20c | 2,362$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.5 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…20b3backed Under 2.5 | 75c | 832.5$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.8 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…6d11backed Under 2.5 | 77c | 724$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.44 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over 2.5 | 25c | 609.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…adf1backed Over 2.5 | 13c | 500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over 2.5 | 24c | 489.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.87 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Under 2.5 | 77c | 447.97$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.97 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over 2.5 | 22c | 322.7$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Over 2.5 | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Under 2.5 | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…bd6dbacked Over 2.5 | 21c | 179.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Under 2.5 | 78c | 153.76$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over 2.5 | 20c | 142.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Under 2.5 | 79c | 136.36$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 600 | 55.7%334 W · 266 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Over 2.5 | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf8…69abbacked Over 2.5 | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed Under 2.5 | 72c | 41.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 307 | 41.7%128 W · 179 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Under 2.5 | 76c | 34.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sinner vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Jannik Sinner vs Alex de MinaurSinner won
- Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs MinaurSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Minaur (+1.5)Sinner won
- Sinner vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Minaur: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Sinner vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.