Earnings · resolved market
Will Toast (TOST) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2c21678d888f3645f5b7e8aea91e2f1ced13a0dec21f5bb3987af1aba374f08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 27c | 573.47$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.1 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 69c | 493.84$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.09 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…6dc8backed Yes | 72c | 419.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.41 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Yes | 73c | 385.89$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.89 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf36a…a9bfbacked No | 31c | 324.45$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 27c | 239.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.14 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 237.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b25…9e52backed Yes | 70c | 189.16$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 30c | 163.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 133.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…ccddbacked Yes | 71c | 132.54$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed Yes | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Yes | 70c | 124.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64cc…0da1backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed No | 28c | 93.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 78c | 77.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 65 | 100%65 W · 0 L | +26.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cc…8072backed No | 28c | 68.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 27c | 63.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3a…5fd0backed No | 27c | 62.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e36…e5ccbacked No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ff…3b59backed No | 28c | 55.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed No | 25c | 52.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9152…1311backed No | 29c | 51.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…ca09backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9d…98ddbacked Yes | 72c | 48.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 33c | 45.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3997…dd0fbacked No | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b77…8869backed No | 31c | 32.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…bf1ebacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 72c | 20.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…d206backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3847…6975backed Yes | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…7d17backed Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…367bbacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.