Earnings · resolved market
Will Marriott International (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb127046c0d86a3d2e77bc03bab21686b87829d93457fbed8e9f49f79bdd1ae59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 70c | 2,704$1,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.74 | 65 | 100%65 W · 0 L | +26.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 10c | 1,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…7f28backed No | 21c | 475.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.26 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 400$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked Yes | 71c | 398.05$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 23c | 397.32$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.65 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 16c | 395.79$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 19c | 315.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.08 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 9c | 222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +219.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 70c | 192.52$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.76 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 9c | 138$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 9c | 138$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 21c | 117.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.36 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6c…6ad3backed Yes | 79c | 110$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…401abacked Yes | 80c | 110$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee7…dc3abacked No | 36c | 105$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 22c | 91.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 78c | 89.92$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 73c | 83.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Yes | 80c | 75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 23c | 74.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed No | 70c | 71.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…cf8abacked Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 77c | 56.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e65…8443backed No | 26c | 52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 29c | 51.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0418…966ebacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc25a…f243backed Yes | 77c | 40.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…d435backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 76c | 36.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cc…8072backed Yes | 76c | 34.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a8…1aecbacked Yes | 79c | 32.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…3895backed Yes | 67c | 26.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 74c | 22.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4980…f038backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b7…0f05backed Yes | 80c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -3.2wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…1d27backed Yes | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0f…f2e0backed Yes | 79c | 12.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.