Fed Rates · resolved market
March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x622c081d57a0fd170629dcc54e583c849d989888d3a22e60d363789a305ae866
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 10c | 10,279$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a20…ab28backed Yes | 0c | 10,060$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…9ae7backed Yes | 2c | 6,301$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 4c | 5,628$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.62 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,910$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf6…bf3ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,766$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…67d4backed Yes | 8c | 2,577$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 6c | 2,044$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,688$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 1,160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ca…89babacked Yes | 10c | 959.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…69ebbacked Yes | 7c | 890.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…b9c9backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65b…7aabbacked Yes | 3c | 714.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 700$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 700$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 532.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 467.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3b…4be2backed Yes | 11c | 448.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 4c | 409.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 366.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 366$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…087ebacked Yes | 11c | 311.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 297.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 267.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 262$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 7c | 230$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 19c | 220$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 47c | 206$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41b…e178backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 191.7$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c78…71c7backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdffe…f6debacked Yes | 7c | 149.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec68…c66fbacked Yes | 12c | 141.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed Yes | 13c | 131$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 30c | 39.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed No | 59c | 33.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ba…621fbacked Yes | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x029c…5137backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.