Middle East · resolved market
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x073b8e53dab8741113c618f53d1ee6e09934e287d559d4eb1c1dbf7162d522cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,304$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.14 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf141…d9aabacked Yes | 72c | 529.31$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…10b6backed No | 54c | 505.85$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95a6…9ccabacked Yes | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…e2ffbacked Yes | 31c | 327.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 39c | 318.33$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.67 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 27c | 317.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.34 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…e61cbacked Yes | 8c | 298.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 30c | 296.23$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.72 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 23c | 233.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x595a…bca8backed No | 31c | 203.85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.85 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 74c | 202.31$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.97 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 10c | 198.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 182.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…a1cebacked Yes | 13c | 148.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 38c | 143.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e0…e4f9backed Yes | 44c | 137.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 46c | 133.9$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.51 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 131.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…5a38backed Yes | 47c | 107.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 66c | 102.72$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 18c | 82.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x392d…21a1backed Yes | 69c | 66.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 21c | 59.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked No | 32c | 56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…f867backed No | 39c | 52.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 31cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 70c | 38.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 41c | 34.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…da14backed Yes | 73c | 27.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 56c | 25.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision?this page
- Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision?No won
- Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.