Fed Rates · resolved market
Will one person dissent the January Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cacc164f8e79d815cc6714b0e5a04055f3bd5f6d05dc25f4265e7ffaa08dadc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 1c | 4,666$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 37c | 3,000$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,890 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…6452backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12a8…722fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked No | 43c | 1,789$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.11 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 41c | 1,045$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.55 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Yes | 63c | 1,000$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 46c | 528.99$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.57 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 41c | 498.12$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…09b6backed Yes | 53c | 374.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed No | 45c | 288.82$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.73 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 60c | 278.68$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 40c | 219$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8d…b456backed Yes | 14c | 217.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac11…9d3abacked No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 52c | 176.63$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…527ebacked No | 50c | 175.08$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…1f67backed Yes | 40c | 167.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 153$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.66 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed No | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 45c | 148$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 62c | 137.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 54c | 136$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 40c | 131.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 48c | 130.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed No | 63c | 115$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 39c | 104.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 39c | 102.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89d5…591bbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c9…16dbbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 46c | 95.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 73c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 48c | 87.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 50c | 79.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 42c | 78.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 42c | 61.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 42c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…8321backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…ffd1backed No | 42c | 45.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb7…543bbacked Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 33c | 42.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 66c | 39.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked No | 58c | 34.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 48c | 32.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 52c | 24.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will one person dissent the January Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the January Fed decision?No won
- Will no one dissent the January Fed decision?No won
- Will three people dissent the January Fed decision?No won
- Will two people dissent the January Fed decision?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.