Fed Rates · resolved market
Will two people dissent the January Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0be3d4cc20250a7105206bc352af8b1c087df2ebd4f3b3927fabcdd8c81d792e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c95…4d15backed Yes | 48c | 2,086$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4901…cc02backed No | 65c | 1,711$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 31c | 1,336$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.17 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x136b…b79dbacked Yes | 37c | 899.98$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 37c | 668$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.25 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 37c | 555$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.27 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 29c | 549.98$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.49 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 63c | 465$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.05 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 37c | 405$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 36c | 400$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 36c | 365$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.11 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 51c | 331.76$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.74 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 31c | 326$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…31c1backed No | 68c | 316.51$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 60c | 270$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.62 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 39c | 260$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.6 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…09b6backed Yes | 43c | 248.66$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 29c | 246.32$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.49per pick | 23cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…d82cbacked Yes | 37c | 207$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 60c | 199.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.31 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 180.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.92 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 35c | 125.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 58c | 86.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 41c | 83.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 60.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 69c | 57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 42c | 54.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a3backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…8321backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb7…543bbacked Yes | 35c | 48.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 49c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 57c | 45.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 32c | 42.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 32c | 41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 67c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will two people dissent the January Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the January Fed decision?No won
- Will no one dissent the January Fed decision?No won
- Will one person dissent the January Fed decision?No won
- Will three people dissent the January Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.