Fed Rates · resolved market
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x224380954b75aacc570002494a30357f6f28b2f65e9aadfb9188ee77f9814b01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 42c | 3,715$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,138.8 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 57c | 2,954$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.04 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed No | 56c | 1,998$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.21 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked Yes | 46c | 1,643$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.43 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 52c | 1,520$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.07 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 1c | 1,464$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed No | 47c | 1,300$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f6…fc9bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,230$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 1c | 1,035$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 31c | 789.07$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 35c | 631.89$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc019…49dcbacked No | 37c | 570.1$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 51c | 418.58$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbc…6f50backed No | 30c | 337.16$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 13c | 315$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…a1e2backed No | 41c | 300.14$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 300$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 9c | 253.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 48c | 197$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 47c | 186.57$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 30c | 182.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 51c | 169.05$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.22 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 63c | 145$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 70c | 126.74$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 66c | 116.95$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 92.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 42c | 89.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 32c | 85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…d498backed Yes | 66c | 75.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 62c | 72.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9560…1279backed No | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67e…6b44backed No | 34c | 62.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 52c | 59.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 51c | 49.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 34c | 46.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed Yes | 29c | 45.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 60c | 37.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 54c | 37.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…1a5abacked No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 56c | 30.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce8…a40cbacked Yes | 73c | 27.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461d…d439backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1362backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…8b89backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…7062backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 53c | 19.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…4e33backed Yes | 75c | 18.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will no one dissent the June Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the June Fed decision?No won
- Will one person dissent the June Fed decision?No won
- Will three people dissent the June Fed decision?No won
- Will two people dissent the June Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.