Earnings · resolved market
Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6db7cea0d4747800f62d5971495fe01307a16b009ed3c87d22c7f06980dd78a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x720e…17b0backed No | 34c | 1,166$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 70c | 450$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x701e…9013backed Yes | 70c | 300.5$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee43…7f62backed No | 34c | 292.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 65c | 150$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…d71fbacked No | 20c | 105.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed No | 30c | 100.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed No | 34c | 79.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed No | 36c | 78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…0bbabacked No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 17c | 61.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 34c | 60.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 36c | 58.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked Yes | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…e965backed Yes | 66c | 49.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…0bfcbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed Yes | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d6…c35fbacked Yes | 71c | 36.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23eb…c516backed Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e81…ff22backed Yes | 79c | 31.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 68c | 22.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…b677backed Yes | 66c | 21.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…8d7abacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.