Earnings · resolved market
Will Humana (HUM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d4bea80fd14e4fa6a4c47b325428c6f9efe00fbba201213742b53231186c683
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0594…e07cbacked No | 1c | 5,270$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 70c | 387.78$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.21 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…e762backed No | 60c | 287.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 73c | 264.09$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.14 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked No | 28c | 199.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 199.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 22c | 194.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed Yes | 29c | 190$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 22c | 175.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 29c | 150.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 30c | 137.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc531…62a5backed No | 31c | 125.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed5…83efbacked No | 30c | 102$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d5…6a7bbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 31c | 80.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 65c | 76.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 70c | 73.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e65…8443backed No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad5…583ebacked Yes | 69c | 66.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 31c | 64.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 75c | 60.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 70c | 56.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…13d8backed No | 30c | 43.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…0a65backed Yes | 41c | 36.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 72c | 34.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…9f02backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 72c | 28.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe40…30f2backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…d8d5backed Yes | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +180%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked No | 40c | 25.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25a…f243backed Yes | 68c | 22.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…3f02backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…e8d7backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.