Earnings · resolved market
Will Tradeweb Markets (TW) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b38177ed15bfc1dcb2b2413e0ed848966a5fa36fe98e32baae80c63762fa808
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 29c | 2,126$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.3 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 68c | 632.61$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.7 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 73c | 601.72$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.14 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 588.69$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.08 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 70c | 565$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.25 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73be…9a59backed Yes | 72c | 483.41$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 28c | 441.7$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 300$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 28c | 299.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 70c | 299.9$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.97 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 30c | 260.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed No | 26c | 250.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cc…8072backed Yes | 70c | 173.39$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 28c | 172.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 32c | 123.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed Yes | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0418…966ebacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed No | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 23c | 80.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 33c | 78.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes | 69c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 68c | 56.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…aa24backed Yes | 67c | 53.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…709dbacked Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 69c | 39.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fb…b069backed No | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Yes | 69c | 34.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…b141backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…5f3ebacked Yes | 73c | 30.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…c5e8backed Yes | 68c | 29.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…b9bcbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b8…1133backed Yes | 72c | 27.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1756…c84dbacked Yes | 73c | 25.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50aa…41e6backed Yes | 72c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 56c | 20.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed Yes | 70c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…53e3backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 60c | 18.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5780…dd00backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.