Earnings · resolved market
Will CME Group (CME) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1735b95b08192800f7262274dc50b8b5e8de2f35b21997e7c335728d4151384c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e6a…2dcfbacked No | 13c | 1,390$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 9c | 1,070$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 19c | 760$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.54 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 19c | 690.22$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.96 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 11c | 475.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 5c | 310$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…1241backed No | 8c | 297.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2589…85e0backed No | 14c | 277.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 18c | 261.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…177fbacked No | 15c | 255.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 19c | 210.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 13c | 156.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 11c | 155.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 17c | 151.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed5…83efbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked No | 17c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 17c | 96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb204…6370backed No | 15c | 78.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 75c | 40.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f46…755dbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.