Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-10-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4d9ab16ee2ae5aba27a02ab3d135d67acfeb042d547356376ad86f90f52d3ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x439b…2c9abacked No | 79c | 7,072$5,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 21c | 4,750$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 4,500$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.07 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 21c | 2,536$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.59 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…aecbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,451$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 78c | 1,450$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked No | 79c | 1,016$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.3 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 53cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfc…4194backed Yes | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 22c | 909.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked No | 78c | 907.67$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.69 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 73c | 550$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed No | 73c | 547.95$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.95 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.24per pick | 69cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 78c | 431.87$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.98 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 22c | 392$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 21c | 358.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 24c | 357$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.59 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 353.53$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.92 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fe…2b7cbacked No | 79c | 318.66$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b0d2backed No | 49c | 305.49$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 41c | 281.9$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.6 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 21c | 271.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 58c | 267.73$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.4 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…bcf4backed No | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 60cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 27c | 249.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…f9fbbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…a466backed No | 73c | 205.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…72adbacked No | 79c | 176.76$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 20c | 164$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…1c3bbacked Yes | 22c | 148.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…d4e0backed No | 73c | 127.3$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…68a8backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 22c | 89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 80c | 87.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 20c | 82.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked No | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…99febacked Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…3e5bbacked No | 79c | 74.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes | 20c | 63.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…aaecbacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 49c | 54.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543c…edabbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 22c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked No | 77c | 38.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91b5…49d5backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…b020backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 78cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…2649backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6d…a980backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…6020backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa513…151dbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67eb…2335backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…ab31backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe949…f325backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c06…dd56backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…7646backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…acc5backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-10-26?this page
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.