Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer Leverkusen vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x156341d38b34ac00d2d3fd8560f36e72470c3aa703879f555d75be470c3f6b30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 8,202$3,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,492.24 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 44c | 7,607$3,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,227.29 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 54c | 5,704$3,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,091.94 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Over | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Under | 45c | 4,478$2,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,462.72 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 2,457$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.97 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.96 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 56c | 733.93$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…4b40backed Over | 46c | 648.28$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…e02abacked Under | 49c | 337.69$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…df04backed Over | 60c | 333.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 44c | 315.09$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.07 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca0…140ebacked Over | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 45c | 264.87$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.68 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661c…3b7bbacked Over | 62c | 258.06$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd750…494dbacked Over | 55c | 246.1$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Over | 55c | 182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…3a31backed Over | 57c | 175.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…4d16backed Over | 21c | 166$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…f862backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x543c…edabbacked Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 57c | 88.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…ff9dbacked Over | 57c | 68.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…4f6ebacked Over | 72c | 66.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…79c4backed Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Over | 55c | 56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x834b…1fa7backed Under | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…62efbacked Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…aecbbacked Over | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccd4…b75bbacked Under | 46c | 32.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 47c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca8…9553backed Under | 46c | 24.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be6…45bbbacked Over | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer Leverkusen vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5this page
- Bayer Leverkusen vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Bayer Leverkusen (-1.5)Bayer Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.