Fifa International · resolved market
Will Egypt vs. Nigeria end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4088802769f61e292fffff1648d23299a8e216aa1977a3fb6440fa2274be7ee0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 26c | 4,234$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.71 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 19c | 2,272$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.46 | 157 | 63.7%100 W · 57 L | +16.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +16%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 47c | 1,795$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.3 | 293 | 43%126 W · 167 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 40c | 1,209$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.78 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 58c | 1,178$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.62 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 43c | 808.48$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.94 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x543c…edabbacked Yes | 37c | 700$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 68c | 687.58$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.71 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 30c | 665.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.97 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7876…c421backed Yes | 67c | 598.17$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 30c | 578$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.6 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 73c | 576$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.08 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +18.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 78c | 567.38$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 13c | 480.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 69c | 454$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.26 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…3fbdbacked Yes | 27c | 434.76$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed No | 70c | 394.91$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.54 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42b0…8fcabacked No | 64c | 307.75$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed Yes | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 36c | 260.25$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 25c | 256.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 31c | 232.13$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 237 | 38.8%92 W · 145 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Yes | 56c | 227.17$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…04e4backed No | 70c | 209.83$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.88 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e6…3363backed Yes | 74c | 205.65$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…505abacked Yes | 49c | 204.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 19c | 199.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 168 | 41.1%69 W · 99 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 38c | 195.61$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.28 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 38c | 190.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Yes | 44c | 177.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…50f6backed Yes | 53c | 172.96$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.59 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa73c…4044backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1111…5e59backed Yes | 31c | 166.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +224.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…f872backed Yes | 37c | 165$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed No | 19c | 140.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 49c | 135.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 237 | 36.3%86 W · 151 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd94…c56cbacked Yes | 75c | 133.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Yes | 31c | 130.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.71 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…d0dfbacked Yes | 69c | 130.25$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920c…25b6backed Yes | 32c | 128.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…15e5backed Yes | 31c | 126.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.34 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed No | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Yes | 31c | 101.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.61 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…6efcbacked Yes | 56c | 94.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 54c | 89.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a5…d778backed Yes | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x332d…7b0ebacked Yes | 43c | 70.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +9.3wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 76c | 65.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 876 | 51.1%448 W · 428 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 55c | 60.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 31c | 58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed No | 37c | 57.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab32…6242backed Yes | 31c | 51.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39f4…3c57backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb745…981bbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 45c | 44.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 287 | 54.7%157 W · 130 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 43c | 43.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 59c | 35.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed No | 59c | 35.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef8…1583backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 33c | 32.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…f4e4backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked No | 73c | 21.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985e…6894backed No | 66c | 18.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Egypt vs. Nigeria end in a draw?this page
- Will Egypt win on 2026-01-17?No won
- Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.