Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1602087a61ad63fdec8944596aca854db5dec8244cf57c092b5a8ea90cfe9a66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 6,663$3,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,103.93 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 54c | 5,997$3,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,778.61 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 44c | 1,032$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.39 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 62c | 758.72$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.88 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Under | 41c | 709.07$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95f…c250backed Over | 60c | 685$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed Under | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 59c | 209.09$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.73 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543c…edabbacked Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 42c | 158.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661c…3b7bbacked Over | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…a922backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 45c | 71.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x834b…1fa7backed Under | 39c | 64.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…675fbacked Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…4d16backed Over | 55c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 58c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfac0…3086backed Over | 58c | 48.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8be…2ef8backed Over | 60c | 47.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 61c | 44.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…2ee8backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c94…1f7dbacked Under | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9bb…a884backed Over | 63c | 29.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x757d…a7ccbacked Over | 79c | 29.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Over | 51c | 23.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-0.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.