Aston Villa vs. Manchester City: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb54763bc70a3b5d614b3d96bd21cef586884569852c8b8636300b6c5fe45ba6

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Oct 26, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $25,410
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $25,579

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,410 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcd81…8a1ebacked Under	45c	6,200$2,790 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,410	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.55per pick	45cpaid	+122.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	44c	5,585$2,457 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,127.65	218	53.2%116 W · 102 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5629…3f63backed Over	55c	4,500$2,475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,475	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33ba…738abacked Over	55c	3,671$2,019 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,018.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Over	56c	3,571$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	202	46.5%94 W · 108 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Under	51c	2,386$1,207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,179.03	357	58%207 W · 150 L	+12.5wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe02d…76adbacked Under	45c	2,200$990 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,210	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a3f…4b40backed Over	47c	1,235$579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$578.85	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	42c	1,208$511 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$697.1	370	36.2%134 W · 236 L	-18.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde91…f20abacked Under	43c	999.96$430 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$569.98	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+2.9wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8b7…4717backed Over	58c	862.07$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over	55c	709$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.64	56	25%14 W · 42 L	-9.4wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd14a…e912backed Under	43c	700$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$399	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+3.0wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x661c…3b7bbacked Over	43c	507.94$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-20%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Over	53c	500$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Under	44c	499.97$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$279.98	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Under	43c	499.97$215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$284.98	414	37.9%157 W · 257 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Over	56c	496.43$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278	153	47.7%73 W · 80 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Over	56c	450$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252	300	50.7%152 W · 148 L	-16.5wins	-0.05per pick	56cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5279…a8dbbacked Over	57c	360$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.5	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-2.5wins	-0.14per pick	42cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed Over	58c	350$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.5	127	53.5%68 W · 59 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d84…7b78backed Over	57c	336.84$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.6wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x495f…06b0backed Over	57c	250$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.5	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa740…ee18backed Over	56c	250$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51d2…1462backed Over	69c	217.75$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x127a…ca3cbacked Over	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	131	49.6%65 W · 66 L	-7.5wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc794…d09cbacked Over	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	57cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa14…ebb0backed Over	57c	175.44$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.21per pick	55cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5833…4893backed Over	35c	142.86$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	46	54.3%25 W · 21 L	-4.4wins	-0.10per pick	64cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Under	43c	135.53$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.25	459	36.2%166 W · 293 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd750…494dbacked Over	56c	135$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.6	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under	44c	111$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.16	293	43.7%128 W · 165 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e09…a4edbacked Over	54c	110$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.1	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Over	56c	100$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	86	31.4%27 W · 59 L	-4.9wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a83…9c87backed Over	60c	100$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Over	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.25	1,224	40%490 W · 734 L	-24.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x543c…edabbacked Over	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fdc…efadbacked Over	57c	100$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.12per pick	31cpaid	+57.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ec5…9fe0backed Over	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.21per pick	65cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5eb2…9f23backed Over	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.38per pick	63cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe86…ec62backed Over	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0345…7defbacked Over	50c	80$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	56c	69$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.64	395	61.3%242 W · 153 L	-21.3wins	-0.05per pick	67cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	45c	61$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.69	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0448…5a75backed Over	56c	54$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.24	49	51%25 W · 24 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a3b…b968backed Under	40c	50$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Under	42c	47.99$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.83	541	28.3%153 W · 388 L	-7.4wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xced0…c680backed Over	56c	44.64$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c8…2f76backed Over	56c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-4.1wins	-0.22per pick	53cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under	44c	38.29$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.54	255	45.5%116 W · 139 L	-18.1wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	192	59.4%114 W · 78 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaebb…4c67backed Over	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f1a…7c47backed Over	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	80	58.8%47 W · 33 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc8…b60ebacked Over	56c	35.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc32e…203dbacked Over	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0fb4…4b52backed Over	53c	31.85$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b2…7c30backed Over	56c	27.66$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.49	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked Over	57c	26.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfba4…974cbacked Under	48c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+2.4wins	+0.15per pick	53cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6be6…45bbbacked Over	57c	22.81$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8e2…9710backed Over	57c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.7wins	-0.19per pick	48cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Over	57c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	172	55.2%95 W · 77 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc6…0f52backed Over	53c	19.93$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Aston Villa vs. Manchester City: O/U 2.5this page
Aston Villa vs. Manchester City: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Spread: Manchester City (-0.5)Aston Villa won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Aston Villa vs. Manchester City: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event