Premier League · resolved market
Aston Villa vs. Manchester City: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf223e6bf8826906c0769726d4fca2d51e2ae6e7c2f09ccc86ff4c0ff9849580f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 51c | 1,300$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.3 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80ab…6c7abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6834…c8d3backed No | 50c | 667.6$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.8 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +7.4wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Yes | 60c | 604.79$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.43 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x757d…a7ccbacked Yes | 50c | 587$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 48cpaid | +291.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 41c | 499.96$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.98 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9451…c3f9backed Yes | 50c | 380.6$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 40c | 285.98$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.79 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed No | 42c | 249.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.99 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 39c | 234.55$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.64 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e1…f4f9backed Yes | 50c | 233$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 52c | 228.33$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 497 | 53.7%267 W · 230 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b97…fc12backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bf…aba5backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 38c | 163.4$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…792bbacked Yes | 61c | 162.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4f…8211backed Yes | 59c | 142.33$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 44c | 98.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd750…494dbacked Yes | 60c | 83.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x834b…1fa7backed No | 43c | 78.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 58c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 86 | 31.4%27 W · 59 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b2…7c30backed Yes | 59c | 54.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e6…c836backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67aa…b88cbacked Yes | 60c | 47.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25a…f814backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aca…a9e3backed No | 42c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dee…efa6backed Yes | 61c | 20.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.41per pick | 55cpaid | -77%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa vs. Manchester City: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Aston Villa vs. Manchester City: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester City (-0.5)Aston Villa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.