Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester City (-0.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd945f939373d0090e3c5b8c38d6563a83c519f4ac587caae83d5f2819b409745
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aston Villaof Manchester City, Aston Villa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff48…b0ecbacked Aston Villa | 50c | 50,000$25,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,000 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Manchester City | 50c | 30,000$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 211 | 54.5%115 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Manchester City | 51c | 18,382$9,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,386.45 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Aston Villa | 45c | 10,899$4,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,979.72 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be0…f674backed Manchester City | 57c | 10,239$5,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,826 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fd…a6c6backed Manchester City | 55c | 7,818$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7225…9c44backed Aston Villa | 45c | 7,800$3,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,290 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Manchester City | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 308 | 51.3%158 W · 150 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Aston Villa | 46c | 4,811$2,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,598.04 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Aston Villa | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Manchester City | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Manchester City | 54c | 999.98$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Aston Villa | 46c | 925.2$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.72 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…792bbacked Manchester City | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9041…09b7backed Manchester City | 26c | 525.77$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.7 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Manchester City | 55c | 262.32$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…d89bbacked Manchester City | 54c | 182.69$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…9f23backed Manchester City | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Manchester City | 53c | 110.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…00f3backed Manchester City | 53c | 104.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…1106backed Manchester City | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Aston Villa | 51c | 81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 228 | 34.2%78 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Aston Villa | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa114…fdadbacked Manchester City | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.9wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…4fe6backed Aston Villa | 46c | 46.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…7637backed Manchester City | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Manchester City | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…49aabacked Manchester City | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Manchester City | 56c | 35.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Aston Villa | 46c | 26.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba4…974cbacked Aston Villa | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Manchester City | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…833bbacked Manchester City | 56c | 18.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester City (-0.5)this page
- Aston Villa vs. Manchester City: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Aston Villa vs. Manchester City: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.