Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 74°F or higher on January 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf850c9463b0290a486a66530173d8aad1061be599da886abbffa7cfae5477664
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafb8…505cbacked Yes | 27c | 11,012$2,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,973.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 73c | 2,358$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.1 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 22c | 1,296$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.63 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,250$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed No | 69c | 642.71$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.93 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…47a3backed Yes | 16c | 503.22$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4a…d721backed No | 73c | 358.92$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bd…3c32backed No | 72c | 282.75$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…2193backed No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 77c | 267$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…26abbacked No | 73c | 183$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked No | 73c | 156.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…1b85backed No | 72c | 148.79$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked No | 73c | 115$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 99.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…1ddcbacked Yes | 46c | 98.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x543c…edabbacked No | 72c | 72.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…3595backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…526cbacked No | 73c | 39.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…b55fbacked No | 73c | 30.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…309cbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325e…9d89backed No | 63c | 23.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…a758backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06b…147fbacked No | 73c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…5cf7backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 74°F or higher on January 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 63°F or below on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on January 29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.