Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd761547fcab792ceab813a9819a68d5de3691a450f8693bac940c74788c3465e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3400…4832backed No | 39c | 7,554$2,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,946.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 19c | 3,760$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,048.93 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…add8backed Yes | 50c | 3,163$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,586.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked No | 77c | 3,000$2,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,295.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 59cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…c3d0backed Yes | 67c | 2,591$1,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…7becbacked Yes | 52c | 2,258$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.76 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e6…590fbacked Yes | 61c | 1,639$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 54c | 1,237$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.29 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -7.4wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 31c | 1,200$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.17 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b98…d011backed Yes | 32c | 1,154$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.26 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a96…4e13backed Yes | 64c | 1,026$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 71c | 986.61$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.61 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 14c | 580.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 72c | 509.99$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.69 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…e4f1backed No | 7c | 499.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +1,224.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed No | 4c | 399.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 51c | 300$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda57…e628backed No | 73c | 296.2$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked Yes | 22c | 244.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.44 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5918…71f9backed Yes | 35c | 219.02$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedfc…1df1backed No | 46c | 217.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +6.9wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd09…9c71backed Yes | 49c | 214$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.43 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…3a2bbacked Yes | 61c | 211.82$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +148.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d1…5840backed Yes | 47c | 210.7$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.77 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 75c | 210.01$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.48 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 184.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 11c | 176$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 20c | 151.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.11 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…4716backed Yes | 17c | 140$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed Yes | 50c | 129.18$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x63c7…ec62backed No | 57c | 118.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 47c | 118.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…3bffbacked Yes | 62c | 111.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e1…d025backed No | 79c | 109.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…d23abacked No | 29c | 102.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa88e…7a93backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeced…c598backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…b27abacked Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 20c | 91.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 49c | 88.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…a510backed No | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…6afabacked No | 30c | 82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 46c | 81.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…0343backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…ab2fbacked No | 44c | 73.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d16…821abacked No | 79c | 70.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6135…c166backed No | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed Yes | 36c | 54.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +176.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd984…18dfbacked Yes | 73c | 50.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd763…84edbacked No | 23c | 44.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf418…b2ccbacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…a863backed No | 48c | 41.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d8…919dbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192b…a3fcbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 42c | 28.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | -19.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa897…09fabacked Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 50c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e5…0d58backed Yes | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa65…8e78backed Yes | 49c | 21.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399b…35cdbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…47d9backed Yes | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…6b85backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in May?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in May?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.