Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32a7802c1c0c93e871bd31ead2fd1152603a006d9e0119da722e3fedbee448e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2de7…89a4backed Yes | 1c | 27,832$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.47 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 6,702$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.47 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,284$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4543…93e2backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e5…e6adbacked Yes | 1c | 1,725$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ca…9265backed Yes | 24c | 1,671$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.57 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0f…5437backed Yes | 2c | 1,543$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…ed9ebacked No | 78c | 1,510$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 1,497$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 2c | 1,341$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed Yes | 24c | 1,294$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.1 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…5e9ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee98…113dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 11c | 913$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a7c7backed Yes | 2c | 865.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes | 1c | 757.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -93%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 2c | 715.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…4223backed Yes | 10c | 610.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfb…9518backed No | 51c | 491.87$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf3…0959backed Yes | 7c | 456.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…3ffebacked Yes | 47c | 447.44$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.55 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…05fdbacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 38c | 376.7$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked No | 78c | 254.37$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 59cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x31c4…4affbacked Yes | 6c | 189.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 8c | 186.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 12c | 184.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…1aafbacked No | 77c | 147.97$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4173…ba3fbacked No | 50c | 118.02$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…98aabacked No | 40c | 109$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 62.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | -19.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdc…0367backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x399b…35cdbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b8…ec46backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf517…a30cbacked No | 63c | 31.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bda…3900backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked No | 41c | 25.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2d…601bbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in May?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in May?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.