Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 23-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5653f382383e979b58201be51c58d92666c4a84b523a75361a910c43a1735bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 4c | 27,434$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.04 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 17c | 7,593$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.81 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,574$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.88 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 11c | 3,797$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.93 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,924$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.21 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e2…b6cbbacked Yes | 12c | 2,590$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.53 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 4c | 2,362$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.54 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…0414backed Yes | 11c | 2,170$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.6 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 8c | 1,964$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.39 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,773$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…494bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,750$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…5c79backed Yes | 3c | 1,530$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 1,449$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7191…aa3ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd9…c7f1backed Yes | 8c | 1,345$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 1,325$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 9c | 1,280$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.64 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9537…705fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,278$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 7c | 1,037$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,024$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42d…5c96backed Yes | 6c | 1,008$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 5c | 947.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 3c | 888.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…01cbbacked Yes | 21c | 880.57$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…b96cbacked Yes | 8c | 620.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 3c | 565.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7720…610fbacked Yes | 9c | 553.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd158…d4f4backed Yes | 13c | 440.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…1ad9backed Yes | 19c | 429.64$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.63 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…ebefbacked Yes | 13c | 390.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…7cf6backed Yes | 10c | 298.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399b…35cdbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes | 14c | 198.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed Yes | 6c | 197.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c7…ff77backed Yes | 8c | 193.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +877.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes | 8c | 177.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -93%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb148…bb0ebacked Yes | 9c | 149.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…aeb4backed Yes | 19c | 91.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…eb13backed Yes | 21c | 57.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 23-29?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 23-29?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 23-29?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 23-29?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 23-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.