Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 23-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e14063d4305f5ff67ef3204d9ee352d0307765c91506b30edf1224bc37832cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $351,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $343,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $351,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 2c | 21,839$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.3 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 3c | 19,125$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.21 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 5c | 14,203$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.91 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 10,250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…0988backed Yes | 2c | 9,084$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.98 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 5c | 7,892$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.1 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 4c | 6,787$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.93 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,917$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.87 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 4c | 3,891$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.42 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…b896backed Yes | 4c | 3,617$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 3c | 3,201$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e2…b6cbbacked Yes | 4c | 3,070$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.21 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 2c | 2,799$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…9f17backed Yes | 3c | 2,477$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…75d9backed Yes | 21c | 2,386$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 4c | 1,928$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 7c | 1,497$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.81 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 4c | 1,473$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,438$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 7c | 1,377$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 6c | 1,360$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…c072backed Yes | 3c | 1,153$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…65febacked Yes | 3c | 999.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 998.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 6c | 802.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 4c | 749.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 3c | 711.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…1cc3backed Yes | 5c | 605.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…99dabacked Yes | 3c | 599.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Yes | 5c | 599.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…9e4ebacked Yes | 8c | 538.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…fd31backed Yes | 9c | 386.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…1b86backed No | 76c | 321.57$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.18 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…88f3backed Yes | 7c | 272.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c23…5492backed Yes | 5c | 264.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…d32fbacked Yes | 17c | 233.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb757…87bebacked Yes | 9c | 211.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 9c | 204.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…5d7bbacked Yes | 10c | 196.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed Yes | 7c | 160.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 13c | 152.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0f…e5f4backed Yes | 10c | 149.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fae…0518backed Yes | 19c | 111.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…0bf7backed Yes | 14c | 91.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 23-29?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 23-29?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 23-29?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 23-29?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 23-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.