TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 23-29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$274,616
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$245,423

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,616 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes2c17,513$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.211466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cfd…b796backed Yes0c15,211$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes37c7,586$2,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,841.1687828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7e2…b6cbbacked Yes40c3,959$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,570.052937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes1c3,697$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%0 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes0c3,302$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.71911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-82.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c2,800$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741373.6%5 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8693…31cdbacked Yes7c2,774$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.981020%2 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd14…1c17backed Yes43c2,443$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.25954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cb…867fbacked Yes20c2,260$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.57450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+153.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes1c2,250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7320%0 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bdc…e8b0backed Yes30c1,959$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.332356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+24.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3822…b720backed No51c1,937$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.228634.9%30 W · 56 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes2c1,920$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.31792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa03…8916backed No59c1,804$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.37728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14f4…7102backed Yes1c1,722$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes42c1,587$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.2740643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc81b…6ca9backed Yes2c1,498$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.28137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes38c1,475$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.5858126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed Yes33c1,419$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.883630.6%11 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+111.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5342…d243backed Yes52c1,263$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.682425%6 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No52c1,218$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.4613770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8c0…3484backed Yes1c1,067$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No63c999.99$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3704858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c90…8770backed No64c845.18$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes9c845.03$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.738920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6758…30e1backed Yes46c842.74$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.66633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8402…bfa4backed Yes13c800$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.53875%6 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+208.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcef2…d6acbacked Yes3c724.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes4c659.53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.42581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd42d…5c96backed Yes41c607.38$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.02650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9537…705fbacked Yes12c595.37$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1260%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes3c590.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.111672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3673…ce22backed Yes8c575$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45837.2%6 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6873…2dc0backed Yes2c499.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x216e…fda6backed Yes15c496.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.321145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bc8…91a1backed Yes14c482.19$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.51240%0 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f92…db0dbacked Yes9c442.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.871612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No62c423.29$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.1516537.6%62 W · 103 L-21.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-38.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes15c408.91$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.573998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c400$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.46785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf295…508fbacked Yes8c375$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea21…b96cbacked Yes43c361.44$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.7180%0 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes8c359.91$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.792683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70c2…4063backed No67c291.21$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…bef0backed No64c252.9$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.582245.5%10 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.17per pick62cpaid-35.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xec3b…fbabbacked Yes8c249.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc06d…62b0backed No58c241.01$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd158…d4f4backed Yes13c223.45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.481513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-58.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e11…4b16backed No68c220.88$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.571346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x522e…63cdbacked Yes45c217.6$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.95475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2674…a13fbacked Yes56c206.73$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05cb…f625backed No47c206.16$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.272213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid+141.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eaf…d00abacked No57c203.66$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ab0…a0e2backed No59c202.88$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2a4…70babacked No59c200.7$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a6…0937backed Yes48c200.09$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.88333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10231523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3709…dcb5backed No58c198.77$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a8…6e50backed No58c198.18$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+49%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9491…6ccebacked No58c197.98$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x827b…5449backed No58c197.58$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.983100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc1a…a8c1backed No58c197.53$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcff4…cfc8backed No58c197.34$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a6f…fb5ebacked No58c197.24$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9677…0215backed No58c195.09$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5016…26d6backed No59c194.41$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eef…040ebacked No58c194.4$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x742a…a133backed No58c194.33$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.622100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+73.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb148…bb0ebacked Yes59c194.15$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.551533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-48.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3456…19a1backed No59c193.36$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0348…795cbacked No58c193.27$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeba…3ff3backed No58c191.69$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00d3…d5ccbacked No58c190.94$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb5d…c305backed No59c188.82$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e9…f0b7backed No59c188.13$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd22a…98d4backed No59c187.98$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb9…de1abacked No59c186.63$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6579…9851backed No58c186.14$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6d0…b986backed No58c185.38$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec72…6a6bbacked No59c184.61$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf794…2359backed No59c184.01$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5952…5679backed No59c182.93$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…06debacked No58c182.51$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e13…3509backed No59c174.75$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b8f…69e1backed No59c174.59$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5784…0830backed No71c174.01$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.215347.2%25 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f9b…0188backed Yes6c169.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d4…f1f5backed Yes16c168.4$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.376446.9%30 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ef8…c08abacked No59c162.38$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf4c…33b5backed Yes28c160.62$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.354341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc887…869bbacked Yes21c158.9$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.373138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cfa…9bb4backed Yes17c158.34$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.652646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eae…7d0cbacked No59c155.76$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes10c152$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.141024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x025f…25cfbacked Yes22c143.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.692240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x561c…11cbbacked Yes11c138.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.531118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-70.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed Yes9c120.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes26c119.74$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.137746.8%36 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.