Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 23-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27d39754e66f552886a91bdb6317889e0bacc353feb81c9914c27dbae27ba4ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $166,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb392…fc73backed Yes | 4c | 9,907$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.73 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a2…4bc9backed Yes | 24c | 9,799$2,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…0988backed No | 70c | 5,753$4,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,725.23 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 30c | 4,500$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.66 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,968$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6294…33f3backed No | 77c | 2,888$2,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.24 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 20c | 2,792$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.42 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 13c | 2,408$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.93 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,207$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 73c | 1,760$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.86 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed Yes | 18c | 1,741$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.81 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 7c | 1,225$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…30e1backed Yes | 26c | 1,138$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42d…5c96backed Yes | 19c | 1,045$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 4c | 1,007$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 2c | 1,005$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9b7bbacked No | 73c | 735.32$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.84 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 15c | 654.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae25…9a48backed Yes | 27c | 647.18$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e2…b6cbbacked Yes | 22c | 638.04$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.79 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6873…2dc0backed Yes | 3c | 599.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf54d…fdedbacked Yes | 29c | 584.73$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…628dbacked Yes | 2c | 513.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7191…aa3ebacked Yes | 24c | 500.13$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…8b32backed No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 499.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 3c | 492.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 24c | 454.82$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.71 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x026a…f9a0backed No | 80c | 449.58$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7720…610fbacked Yes | 23c | 426.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8693…31cdbacked Yes | 15c | 402.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 399.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74b…9089backed Yes | 3c | 369.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed No | 76c | 353.97$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.59 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…980abacked Yes | 14c | 353.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…df66backed No | 75c | 332.23$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14cc…16b0backed Yes | 22c | 311.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332c…ae23backed Yes | 24c | 286.81$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…b96cbacked Yes | 17c | 285.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0a…08e8backed No | 78c | 252.64$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed Yes | 13c | 241.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bc…2450backed Yes | 30c | 229.66$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33fb…897cbacked Yes | 33c | 208.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…33b5backed Yes | 16c | 200.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dd…ced7backed Yes | 19c | 197.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 72c | 195.94$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…7cf6backed Yes | 21c | 164.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes | 26c | 147.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3a…3b17backed Yes | 35c | 146.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 30cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9537…705fbacked Yes | 17c | 145.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 21c | 115.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 24c | 113.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes | 18c | 109.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -93%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…62b0backed No | 79c | 102.59$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…b78ebacked No | 73c | 102.39$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b3…3f47backed Yes | 30c | 97.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffa…df8ebacked Yes | 30c | 97.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f22…6b8abacked Yes | 30c | 97.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8f…5930backed Yes | 30c | 97.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…a50ebacked Yes | 17c | 93.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…b70bbacked Yes | 15c | 89.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…977cbacked No | 79c | 89.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd158…d4f4backed Yes | 27c | 76.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…bef0backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…318bbacked No | 80c | 38.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +47%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…700bbacked No | 70c | 28.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a7…3576backed No | 75c | 28.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…4872backed No | 77c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed No | 77c | 17.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked No | 79c | 16.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…aca1backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 23-29?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 23-29?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 23-29?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 23-29?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 23-29?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 23-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.