Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft reach $450 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0131c37b777242c27ef48d1d76e04d796e8767bf23b3075f830677890dce2234
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 32c | 747.87$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.96 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 68c | 547$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…c767backed Yes | 6c | 358.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 4c | 349.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 65c | 111$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…2b18backed Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…4b31backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d6…f13dbacked Yes | 45c | 44.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 45c | 26.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed No | 78c | 21.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft reach $450 in April?this page
- Will Microsoft dip to $330 in April?No won
- Will Microsoft dip to $353 in April?No won
- Will Microsoft dip to $375 in April?Yes won
- Will Microsoft reach $420 in April?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.