Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft dip to $330 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe16906904d0fcc38185027d763d749e4e13c77b03964f76ba5dee1f7f4be269
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe14c…0fadbacked No | 45c | 245.66$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…ff0bbacked No | 44c | 244.37$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0836…3057backed No | 45c | 238.37$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9c…467dbacked No | 44c | 236.27$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9643…3e01backed No | 44c | 235.14$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5d…0fbfbacked No | 45c | 234.64$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +89%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…ad99backed No | 45c | 234.01$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…f8c7backed No | 45c | 233.63$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1324…eb09backed No | 45c | 233.15$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd2…b38bbacked No | 45c | 232.05$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…d110backed No | 45c | 231.69$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…9019backed No | 45c | 231.57$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…2dfebacked No | 44c | 227.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…3ff5backed No | 44c | 227.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e3…5cb5backed No | 45c | 225.96$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 50c | 197.6$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.92 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 14c | 97.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft dip to $330 in April?this page
- Will Microsoft dip to $353 in April?No won
- Will Microsoft dip to $375 in April?Yes won
- Will Microsoft reach $420 in April?Yes won
- Will Microsoft reach $450 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.