TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ole Missof Ole Miss, Oklahoma
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,315,262
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,337,321

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,315,262 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 276 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Ole Miss36c252,282$91,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160,506.8712549.6%62 W · 63 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Ole Miss46c208,268$95,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112,739.3668440.8%279 W · 405 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Oklahoma63c46,498$29,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,508.697342.5%31 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Ole Miss37c38,640$14,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,535.0134250.3%172 W · 170 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Oklahoma63c38,248$24,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,004.9916635.5%59 W · 107 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Oklahoma64c37,603$24,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,066.095141.2%21 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Oklahoma28c35,287$9,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,741.0740541.2%167 W · 238 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Oklahoma36c33,308$12,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,066.726838.2%26 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Oklahoma52c32,205$16,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,736.8785947.7%410 W · 449 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7189…b454backed Oklahoma64c30,389$19,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,448.744353.5%23 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Oklahoma64c28,061$17,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,961.2675651.9%392 W · 364 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Oklahoma64c26,542$16,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,9502147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked Ole Miss37c26,486$9,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,686.493145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Oklahoma62c26,090$16,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,290.430949.5%153 W · 156 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Oklahoma64c25,350$16,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,173.6611653.4%62 W · 54 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Oklahoma64c25,000$15,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,899.9915745.2%71 W · 86 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Oklahoma62c19,322$12,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,066.4815451.9%80 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fce…2229backed Ole Miss74c16,588$12,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,320.782744.4%12 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-30.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Ole Miss36c16,391$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,491.247846.2%36 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Oklahoma16c15,963$2,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,604.512040%8 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Oklahoma21c15,604$3,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,266.647929.1%23 W · 56 L-8.1wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-41.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Oklahoma63c15,000$9,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,4507545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Oklahoma64c14,129$9,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,042.5620450.5%103 W · 101 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Oklahoma47c13,024$6,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,129.8327648.9%135 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Oklahoma63c12,500$7,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,874.9852641.8%220 W · 306 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Oklahoma63c11,179$7,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,086.9438450.5%194 W · 190 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Oklahoma38c10,813$4,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,062.9386243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Oklahoma63c10,092$6,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,344.482,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Oklahoma64c9,000$5,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,759.9611248.2%54 W · 58 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Ole Miss60c8,500$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4003342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf0…153ebacked Oklahoma63c8,000$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,039.991546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Ole Miss76c7,500$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800.15639.3%22 W · 34 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Oklahoma63c7,500$4,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,724.997944.3%35 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Ole Miss54c7,249$3,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,315.5223751.1%121 W · 116 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Oklahoma64c6,663$4,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,273.8781847.9%392 W · 426 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Oklahoma64c6,065$3,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,853.5719051.6%98 W · 92 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Ole Miss59c5,735$3,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,364.8855350.3%278 W · 275 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91cc…18c3backed Oklahoma65c5,000$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,250250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e08…9726backed Ole Miss36c5,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,200366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+50.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Ole Miss70c5,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5003053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5200backed Oklahoma66c4,996$3,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,305862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8768…dd9bbacked Ole Miss76c4,959$3,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.572867.9%19 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…7985backed Ole Miss35c4,500$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,925250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86bc…a198backed Ole Miss35c4,500$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9252100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+144.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Oklahoma64c4,440$2,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,841.617655.1%97 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Oklahoma64c4,000$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5607143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7440…24fdbacked Oklahoma65c4,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Oklahoma34c3,939$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.6364841.2%267 W · 381 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf7…836abacked Ole Miss52c3,657$1,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,754.051250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ee…dd42backed Ole Miss37c3,282$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.672433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-1.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54a3…1c90backed Ole Miss56c3,216$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.96966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+86%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Oklahoma64c3,215$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,060.5549253.5%263 W · 229 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x09f8…e156backed Ole Miss35c2,863$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.422638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Oklahoma35c2,832$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.5862843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Oklahoma57c2,792$1,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,579.2640244.8%180 W · 222 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Ole Miss37c2,705$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.4119362.2%120 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d4d…794cbacked Oklahoma64c2,700$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1d5…e1e2backed Ole Miss36c2,699$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,728.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Oklahoma64c2,615$1,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,673.8949443.7%216 W · 278 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x351b…4d06backed Oklahoma24c2,609$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.752951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86a3…33dbbacked Ole Miss37c2,550$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,606.52646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Oklahoma41c2,500$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.863030%9 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Oklahoma64c2,500$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6006251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Oklahoma2c2,472$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8513149.6%65 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Oklahoma63c2,382$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.6629055.2%160 W · 130 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74bc…98c9backed Oklahoma53c2,374$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.310555.2%58 W · 47 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f5f…9ce2backed Oklahoma59c2,350$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,394.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Oklahoma65c2,246$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.6734529.9%103 W · 242 L-21.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0432…1660backed Oklahoma22c2,191$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.129635.4%34 W · 62 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed32…20d6backed Oklahoma45c2,004$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.54650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaef9…72b5backed Ole Miss37c2,000$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2651100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+172.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Oklahoma31c1,909$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59420039.5%79 W · 121 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3688…a4debacked Ole Miss37c1,800$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Ole Miss33c1,551$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.4619120.9%40 W · 151 L+0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7292…6bd3backed Ole Miss40c1,515$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.722842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+35%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf930…e346backed Oklahoma62c1,443$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90012042.5%51 W · 69 L-11.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf35e…94cabacked Ole Miss35c1,428$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.112055%11 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1bc…9dc9backed Ole Miss36c1,278$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.785437%20 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Oklahoma65c1,233$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.71,09041.7%455 W · 635 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Oklahoma58c1,210$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.3248546.8%227 W · 258 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf2c9…5d53backed Oklahoma64c1,100$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x55b5…7a7bbacked Ole Miss80c1,014$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd80…7b95backed Oklahoma64c1,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Ole Miss35c999.97$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.9810848.1%52 W · 56 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Oklahoma64c947.99$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.0350358.1%292 W · 211 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7842…1240backed Oklahoma64c900$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Oklahoma63c865$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.111844.1%52 W · 66 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fcb…08fbbacked Oklahoma28c814.99$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2302060%12 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+12.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5eb7…05f6backed Oklahoma12c800$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994141.5%17 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa962…6c41backed Oklahoma64c800$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Oklahoma13c800$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1043423.5%8 W · 26 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+40.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Oklahoma50c750$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.511436%41 W · 73 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cd2…f9a6backed Oklahoma42c741.38$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.44955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c2b…aa95backed Ole Miss35c722.16$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.161145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Oklahoma65c717$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.054748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x610c…3a8ebacked Ole Miss35c707.14$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8db6…da81backed Ole Miss42c706.32$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.322867.9%19 W · 9 L+5.3wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+85.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb08f…cae6backed Ole Miss35c693$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.45333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea1…4b8dbacked Ole Miss36c668.25$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.251323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed Ole Miss62c667.25$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.125238.5%20 W · 32 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-30.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.