College Football · resolved market
Spread: Oklahoma (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f0ae7dfd6a8e6838bd02733dd314c12b8cfdd0dbcf15e9ef877bf45b2e8025a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ole Missof Oklahoma, Ole Miss
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ole Miss | 46c | 1,381$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.01 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Ole Miss | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ac…317ebacked Oklahoma | 54c | 800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Ole Miss | 45c | 490$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.74 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Oklahoma | 48c | 447.01$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.56 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Oklahoma | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Oklahoma | 52c | 194.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…3bfebacked Ole Miss | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Ole Miss | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Oklahoma | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Oklahoma | 54c | 65.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Ole Miss | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…379bbacked Ole Miss | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593b…d19bbacked Ole Miss | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Oklahoma | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22d…56bfbacked Oklahoma | 54c | 19.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 56cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oklahoma (-4.5)this page
- O/U 52.5Over won
- Ole Miss vs. OklahomaOle Miss won
- Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma: O/U 53.5Over won
- Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma: O/U 54.5Over won
- Spread: Oklahoma (-5.5)Ole Miss won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.