Earnings · resolved market
Will Ford Motor (F) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd609798eeb72710841a77d2007d8a8434e43b3a6419a1241eecc468ab0d98778
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 63c | 2,915$1,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.97 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb21d…2c51backed No | 40c | 1,876$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 65c | 1,249$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.79 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 62c | 987.58$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.28 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9758…caafbacked No | 31c | 961.6$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…3bc0backed No | 8c | 918.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 37c | 803.45$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30aa…2bddbacked Yes | 68c | 750$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 33c | 731.65$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.61 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x22bd…ad18backed No | 4c | 558.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 68c | 550$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 33c | 418.42$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.83 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…fd14backed Yes | 63c | 396.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…9593backed Yes | 68c | 280$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 64c | 272.7$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.7 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1091…a259backed No | 23c | 253.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…0cafbacked Yes | 65c | 252.23$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 246.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…1456backed No | 21c | 235.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…9bfdbacked No | 30c | 210$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 65c | 206.9$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.57 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 65c | 204.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b9c6backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed No | 35c | 157.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1d…8471backed No | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x472b…d2f4backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 78c | 139$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…215fbacked No | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 74c | 133.49$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…fd36backed No | 38c | 119.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 30c | 113.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 61c | 86.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 79c | 77.46$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…42ccbacked No | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 74c | 58.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656a…d48bbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…0a59backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 40.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 67c | 40.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…f7a9backed Yes | 62c | 40.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e06…d668backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +167.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…728cbacked Yes | 69c | 39.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 30c | 37.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…f471backed No | 31c | 32.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 67c | 30.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 61c | 28.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…c36abacked Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked Yes | 65c | 22.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.