TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,081
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,588

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,081 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Under57c4,881$2,782 inWon+$2,098.9611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over41c2,893$1,186 inLost-$1,185.954,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over38c1,500$570 inLost-$57075248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over48c1,424$686 inLost-$686.22,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over24c590$142 inLost-$141.68,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under61c497.61$305 inWon+$192.34,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over50c475.1$237 inLost-$237.144,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over27c462.84$125 inLost-$124.978,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Under50c400$200 inWon+$20082636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over37c383.05$142 inLost-$141.732,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Over50c334.69$167 inLost-$167.22,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Under63c317.46$200 inWon+$117.4681257.3%465 W · 347 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over20c195.73$39 inLost-$39.1812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…c3d9backed Under66c151.52$100 inWon+$51.5218272%131 W · 51 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+11.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked Under69c100$69 inWon+$312100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+79.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over31c87$27 inLost-$26.9710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd770…209dbacked Over21c71.55$15 inLost-$15.0615248%73 W · 79 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under55c71.24$39 inWon+$32.339,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e89…2e8ebacked Under78c64.1$50 inWon+$14.12564%16 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over49c57.24$28 inLost-$28.051,00058.8%588 W · 412 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe707…e0cfbacked Under63c31.43$20 inWon+$11.6313864.5%89 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe481…d138backed Over37c29.48$11 inLost-$10.9188247.7%421 W · 461 L+3.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Over49c28.3$14 inLost-$13.9955259.6%329 W · 223 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73bd…b576backed Over40c26.95$11 inLost-$10.7827557.1%157 W · 118 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90f…a908backed Under63c22.6$14 inWon+$8.369755.7%54 W · 43 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.