MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03a07d458da5df97606b3bb2160703ccb77e3c8b2a8bc6377df0ddf64e558e1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 4,757$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.79 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 4,602$3,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 21c | 1,887$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 707.83$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 27c | 425.06$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 310$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.15 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 72c | 205.36$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 185.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 144.93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.96 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 135.48$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Cincinnati Reds | 24c | 95.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…a6e8backed Cincinnati Reds | 17c | 75.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 73.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Cincinnati Reds | 23c | 59.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Cincinnati Reds | 24c | 57.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 36.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 35.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 34.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 16.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.