MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c93953df842f09f8f72c557bd3be0a6a78f748f68c3f28aa0a13105666d191d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 46c | 100,560$46,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,478.24 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 55c | 34,214$18,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,490.15 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 28,109$15,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,623.51 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 14,455$6,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,554.66 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 52c | 12,684$6,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,051.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 52c | 2,882$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,383.36 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 52c | 2,538$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.7 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 2,490$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.76 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.99 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d6…513fbacked Under | 53c | 1,212$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 56c | 773.21$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 53c | 714.08$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.35 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 55c | 667.63$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.76 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 54c | 558$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.46 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 24c | 541$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.63 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 50c | 473.2$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.6 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 44c | 468$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.08 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 54c | 411.8$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.37 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 35c | 342.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 54c | 340.92$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.98 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 52c | 288.19$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.33 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 41c | 239.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 58c | 239.06$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.11 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 164.88$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.33 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 52c | 144.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 45c | 102.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 52c | 101.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 52c | 98.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Under | 45c | 96.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 96.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Under | 45c | 93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked Under | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 64c | 75.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 52c | 69.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 49c | 64.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4d…2008backed Under | 52c | 50.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Under | 53c | 45.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 53c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 42c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…7b20backed Over | 56c | 34.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25ae…76c6backed Over | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ce…bef9backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under | 58c | 25.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9b21backed Over | 56c | 24.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 57c | 23.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Under | 52c | 22.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Under | 54c | 22.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.