TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,481
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,478

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,481 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over48c12,258$5,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,851.572,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Under52c12,112$6,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,813.7277647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Under53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,70036246.1%167 W · 195 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over47c9,490$4,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,494.3311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over48c5,152$2,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,472.961,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under53c3,774$1,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,787.054,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Over46c3,043$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40010545.7%48 W · 57 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over42c2,978$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.458,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under52c2,572$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.5692054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Under55c2,380$1,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,07179442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under52c1,953$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.452,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Over48c1,780$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.3564452.2%336 W · 308 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over48c1,707$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.858,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over49c1,532$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.6868053.2%362 W · 318 L+2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over47c1,457$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.546,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Under52c1,450$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69611744.4%52 W · 65 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under50c1,208$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.874,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Over49c1,158$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.5856253.2%299 W · 263 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8efa…894cbacked Over47c1,002$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.9445445.2%205 W · 249 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Over45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45082636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under52c971.9$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.7836048.6%175 W · 185 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over47c692$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.242,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Under52c665.19$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.2947350.7%240 W · 233 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under52c601.66$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.85,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over46c583.07$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.9412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Under53c553.6$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.1924551.8%127 W · 118 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Under52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24086653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Under52c480.75$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.7648851.6%252 W · 236 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Under53c471$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.3718741.2%77 W · 110 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over48c440.01$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.842,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf636…5465backed Under51c414.71$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.219956.6%56 W · 43 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Over48c408.2$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9487750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under37c391$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.334,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Over48c341.69$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.961,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Under37c301$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.631,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Under52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1444163.4%26 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Under52c288.45$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4646152.1%240 W · 221 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under54c278.97$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.5610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Over49c275$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7571650.7%363 W · 353 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Under52c201.22$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.7453655.8%299 W · 237 L+22.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Under51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9844245.5%201 W · 241 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9270737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Under51c196.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0711041.8%46 W · 64 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3111655.2%64 W · 52 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Over48c186$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.281,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…9324backed Over39c185$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.154445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under54c177.68$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.734,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over46c163.34$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.149,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Under52c153$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4416132.3%52 W · 109 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Under52c149.25$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5946255.8%258 W · 204 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Under47c145.3$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0130934.3%106 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Over50c134.76$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3839953.6%214 W · 185 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Over50c134.76$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3838551.4%198 W · 187 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed Over47c133.07$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5417346.2%80 W · 93 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under52c130$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.42,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Under51c127.01$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.241,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc730…c568backed Under52c93.47$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8735747.6%170 W · 187 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd770…209dbacked Under55c84.44$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9815248%73 W · 79 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d6…1f24backed Over49c76.59$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5331258%181 W · 131 L+15.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Over47c75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2540446.5%188 W · 216 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over47c74.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba2c…fddabacked Over48c64$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.722532%8 W · 17 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-29.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x56fa…30cebacked Under52c62.69$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0923357.5%134 W · 99 L+22.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Under42c59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2234443.9%151 W · 193 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under52c54.23$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.052,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Under58c48.1$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.22,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over36c41.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.945,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under64c41.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9452638.4%202 W · 324 L+1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under53c33.28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.641,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65a4…1963backed Under61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.794658.7%27 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Over48c31.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4655645.3%252 W · 304 L-17.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Over49c29.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3330554.4%166 W · 139 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecae…c544backed Over45c25.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6155448.2%267 W · 287 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba00…527bbacked Over54c25.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7914351%73 W · 70 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Over49c24.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9756435.1%198 W · 366 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bbf…7ce5backed Over47c24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2812140.5%49 W · 72 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under56c23.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.153,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Over48c22.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dae…7199backed Over46c22.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2313151.1%67 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Over47c22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3848751.5%251 W · 236 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Over48c21.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3142451.9%220 W · 204 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1138…b8c7backed Over50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.