TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7c29…6dc0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 59 out of 100; worst MLB at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+72.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.34
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.31
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+135.1%+$82.15
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+434.3%+$305.04
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+95.9%+$122.26
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.05
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.57
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.12
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+760.5%+$258.37
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$338Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+36%+$121.79
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+50%+$18.22
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$527Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+46.4%+$244.32
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+124%+$55.68
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+189.7%+$720.28
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+226.8%+$391.5
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+76%+$50.16
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.74
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.37
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.67
All 19 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+37.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Tennis — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauffbacked Aryna Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+34.3%+$11.5
Alicante: Sebastian Ofner vs Pablo Carreno Bustabacked Sebastian Ofner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.16
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatschbacked Polona Hercog · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+144.1%+$165.78
Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakinabacked Aryna Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+31%+$7.1
Miami Open: Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchovabacked Coco Gauff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+115.1%+$32.1
Alicante: Alejo Sanchez Quilez vs Pablo Carreno Bustabacked Alejo Sanchez Quilez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.31
Alicante: Max Houkes vs Vilius Gaubasbacked Max Houkes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+362.6%+$123.32
Miami Open: Tommy Paul vs Arthur Filsbacked Tommy Paul · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.27
Miami Open: Martin Landaluce vs Jiri Leheckabacked Martin Landaluce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.94
Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegulabacked Elena Rybakina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+88.4%+$86.79
All 10 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.6
Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Kansas City Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+84.4%+$79.49
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.76
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Minnesota Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$83
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.92
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Metsbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.67
New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$40.09
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+216.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+532.9%+$589
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.77
All 2 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hyderabadbacked Royal Challengers Bengaluru · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$252Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+51.9%+$130.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$226.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.91
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.