NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-14.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x781459a1862e2b6c091a3e4abc44664d75d8c3a63628c1ac04e6965f5a27b9f1

Rebuilt 2 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Netsof Knicks, Nets
Resolved: Nov 25, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,575
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $19,238

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,575 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x01b4…372ebacked Knicks	1c	8,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	298	10.4%31 W · 267 L	+22.5wins	+0.08per pick	3cpaid	+230.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf95…eb74backed Nets	55c	1,900$1,045 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$855	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a4c…94fdbacked Knicks	45c	1,900$855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$855	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-3.0wins	-0.21per pick	50cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nets	54c	1,214$656 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$558.11	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Knicks	44c	1,005$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Nets	56c	935.8$522 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$414.25	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Knicks	47c	823$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.81	627	44.5%279 W · 348 L	-12.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Knicks	44c	754$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.76	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Nets	54c	441$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$202.86	288	50.3%145 W · 143 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Knicks	4c	400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	222	43.7%97 W · 125 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Knicks	32c	303.08$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.62	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Nets	56c	288.36$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.88	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Nets	72c	268.65$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.22	304	54.9%167 W · 137 L	+16.3wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Knicks	28c	268.65$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.22	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11c5…f12dbacked Nets	52c	250$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d30…3391backed Knicks	48c	250$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fd4…6ebcbacked Knicks	48c	248$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.04	38	50%19 W · 19 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks	46c	213.16$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.06	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks	49c	146$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.54	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nets	53c	108$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.76	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Knicks	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	890	50.4%449 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Knicks	46c	99.98$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.99	123	42.3%52 W · 71 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Knicks	48c	98.35$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.01	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nets	51c	96$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.04	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48f8…9166backed Nets	54c	83.33$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.33	171	45.6%78 W · 93 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Nets	62c	50$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19	185	54.1%100 W · 85 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x213c…618ebacked Nets	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20c7…f12fbacked Nets	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	75	46.7%35 W · 40 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-14.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event