NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-12.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc03b85e597703df493cf4a8a504df8956887d0e9fc23008a944e343d405974b6

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Knicksof Knicks, Nets
Resolved: Nov 25, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $348,067
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $348,143

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $348,067 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x82a1…e03abacked Nets	51c	324,684$165,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165,000	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Knicks	49c	226,122$110,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115,322.13	1,045	49%512 W · 533 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Knicks	50c	60,524$30,261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30,263.5	593	47%279 W · 314 L	-7.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Knicks	49c	21,000$10,350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,650	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Knicks	50c	15,479$7,668 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,810.78	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Knicks	49c	10,010$4,905 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,105.1	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Knicks	49c	5,618$2,753 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,865.1	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Knicks	50c	2,510$1,255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,255.2	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Knicks	50c	2,000$990 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,010	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Nets	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Knicks	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	256	42.6%109 W · 147 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd14a…e912backed Knicks	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Knicks	49c	754$373 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$380.91	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Nets	48c	392.31$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.31	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad34…4386backed Knicks	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed Knicks	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	168	52.4%88 W · 80 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Nets	50c	102$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Nets	49c	99.99$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed6…bbabbacked Knicks	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	328	53%174 W · 154 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x205f…0189backed Knicks	50c	61.53$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.76	57	47.4%27 W · 30 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Knicks	51c	58.82$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.82	167	43.7%73 W · 94 L	-16.6wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Knicks	51c	41.17$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.17	173	49.1%85 W · 88 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9aed…bd17backed Nets	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-4.3wins	-0.13per pick	55cpaid	-30%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce49…4740backed Nets	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	236	42.4%100 W · 136 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed Knicks	51c	28$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.62	183	57.4%105 W · 78 L	+10.3wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x694f…68efbacked Knicks	51c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.25	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-14%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-12.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event