NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe94a3b569655ec1ecb16041350419eb9cded47c8af43ee37c7da95ef57a5e525
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Heat, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks | 53c | 22,365$11,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,439.41 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 47c | 17,979$8,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,426.2 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Mavericks | 52c | 4,175$2,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,019.67 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Heat | 48c | 3,600$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…90e9backed Mavericks | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…2353backed Heat | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Heat | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a9…676ebacked Mavericks | 54c | 1,900$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…2b11backed Heat | 46c | 1,900$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Heat | 48c | 1,542$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.73 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Heat | 19c | 1,225$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.49 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Heat | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.17 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Heat | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Mavericks | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 54c | 909.75$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.34 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Heat | 47c | 877$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.19 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd4…6ebcbacked Mavericks | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Heat | 51c | 587.31$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Mavericks | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Mavericks | 55c | 399.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Mavericks | 53c | 396$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.12 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Heat | 45c | 373.33$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Mavericks | 52c | 350$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Heat | 53c | 273$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.35 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Heat | 48c | 268$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.64 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4b…69c4backed Heat | 53c | 233.96$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…fd74backed Heat | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Heat | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked Heat | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Heat | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Heat | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Heat | 47c | 137.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Heat | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Mavericks | 50c | 103.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Mavericks | 71c | 101.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Mavericks | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe971…350cbacked Mavericks | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4d…fc45backed Heat | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -16.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Heat | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Mavericks | 69c | 96.84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Heat | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5735backed Heat | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Heat | 46c | 58.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…dfa3backed Heat | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Heat | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e58…f73bbacked Mavericks | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Mavericks | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat | 45c | 49.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Mavericks | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Heat | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Heat | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Mavericks | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5256…24a5backed Mavericks | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Heat | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Heat | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Heat | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3698…7160backed Mavericks | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Heat | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Heat | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Mavericks | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Mavericks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213c…618ebacked Heat | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Mavericks vs. HeatHeat won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.