NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x134362c2bc6109369aed1e96a399a78d630b4651ecdabc9e85ab35c09378e450

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Mavericksof Heat, Mavericks
Resolved: Nov 25, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $325,741
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $325,783

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,741 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x82a1…e03abacked Mavericks	53c	266,597$140,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126,596.59	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Heat	47c	110,432$51,903 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51,902.88	1,045	49%512 W · 533 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Heat	49c	70,749$34,667 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34,666.95	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Heat	47c	15,000$7,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,050	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Heat	47c	14,869$6,988 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,988.49	593	47%279 W · 314 L	-7.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7d…b54dbacked Heat	51c	11,745$5,990 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,990	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat	47c	10,143$4,770 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,770.23	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Heat	47c	10,015$4,707 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,707.21	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Mavericks	51c	9,000$4,590 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,410	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c57…c94dbacked Heat	52c	7,282$3,786 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,786.47	51	51%26 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Heat	47c	5,957$2,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,799.79	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0fb5…cdb0backed Heat	49c	3,504$1,717 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,716.92	56	44.6%25 W · 31 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Mavericks	51c	3,060$1,561 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,499.4	207	44.9%93 W · 114 L	-8.4wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Heat	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Mavericks	49c	2,803$1,382 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,421.11	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat	47c	2,500$1,175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,175	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d04…9435backed Heat	50c	2,100$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,050	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+3.9wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf84b…3f64backed Mavericks	50c	2,100$1,050 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,050	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Heat	49c	2,040$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.6	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Heat	56c	1,795$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Heat	51c	1,581$806 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$805.97	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Heat	47c	1,489$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.83	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks	45c	1,437$649 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$787.98	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat	47c	1,432$679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$679.18	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Heat	49c	1,224$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	164	42.1%69 W · 95 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Heat	50c	1,048$529 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$529.05	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Heat	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb4b…ab60backed Heat	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Mavericks	52c	1,000$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480	173	54.3%94 W · 79 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd14a…e912backed Heat	48c	1,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Heat	52c	765.18$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.89	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Heat	48c	703.13$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.63	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1377…56aebacked Heat	50c	657$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.93	74	47.3%35 W · 39 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat	48c	627$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.96	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f1d…3de0backed Heat	57c	614.04$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a9c…598dbacked Heat	49c	560.69$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.74	44	65.9%29 W · 15 L	+5.6wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Mavericks	48c	500$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Heat	49c	500$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	256	42.6%109 W · 147 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Heat	50c	408.16$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.08	150	34.7%52 W · 98 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fd4…6ebcbacked Mavericks	44c	399.98$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$223.99	38	50%19 W · 19 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Heat	49c	381.02$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.7	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks	49c	375.18$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.37	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks	49c	250.03$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.6	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x744b…848ebacked Heat	51c	240.8$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.81	145	52.4%76 W · 69 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Heat	55c	230$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.8	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e13…732fbacked Heat	53c	226$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.78	66	48.5%32 W · 34 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe832…7abbbacked Heat	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	54	55.6%30 W · 24 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Heat	50c	150$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Mavericks	45c	110.99$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.04	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x655d…b758backed Heat	49c	104.08$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	244	46.7%114 W · 130 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Heat	49c	104.08$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed6…bbabbacked Heat	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	328	53%174 W · 154 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Mavericks	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	661	53.3%352 W · 309 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87d5…9790backed Heat	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	133	58.6%78 W · 55 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f1…f0e8backed Heat	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	81	55.6%45 W · 36 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7f2…9b10backed Heat	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	79	53.2%42 W · 37 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48f8…9166backed Heat	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	171	45.6%78 W · 93 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x096a…dfa3backed Heat	49c	76$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.24	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Heat	49c	72.2$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.38	363	51.2%186 W · 177 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks	47c	66$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.73	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58c9…8174backed Heat	49c	61.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	98	51%50 W · 48 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Heat	53c	60$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.6	372	53.5%199 W · 173 L	+9.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97f1…c325backed Heat	51c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.3	81	49.4%40 W · 41 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aea…ec91backed Heat	55c	56.44$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.04	53	49.1%26 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Heat	53c	52.83$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55be…a73abacked Heat	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeabf…97e5backed Heat	56c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	144	52.1%75 W · 69 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Heat	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	218	38.1%83 W · 135 L	-9.3wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc95c…cef3backed Heat	56c	36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.16	112	58.9%66 W · 46 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Heat	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat	49c	31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.19	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9365…1389backed Mavericks	50c	29.98$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.98	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-19%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed Heat	49c	28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.72	183	57.4%105 W · 78 L	+10.3wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf275…7050backed Heat	52c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	79	55.7%44 W · 35 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x694f…68efbacked Heat	49c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-14%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Mavericks	47c	24$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.72	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4131…d591backed Heat	55c	21.82$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	146	50.7%74 W · 72 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f6e…6a74backed Mavericks	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	216	51.4%111 W · 105 L	-12.5wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x20c7…f12fbacked Heat	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	75	46.7%35 W · 40 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d60…50dbbacked Heat	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	62	56.5%35 W · 27 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb864…fd58backed Heat	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-2.7wins	-0.21per pick	59cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Heat	53c	19.23$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.19	448	44.2%198 W · 250 L	-11.4wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Heat (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event