NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f7f7831eaef2738919c5c24da93db78d94ae9af6ed47e84c6680d0884155a81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 5,482$2,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,887.94 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 52c | 4,500$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…92f4backed Under | 43c | 1,900$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…388cbacked Over | 57c | 1,900$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…30c8backed Over | 56c | 1,900$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ec…55ebbacked Under | 44c | 1,900$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Under | 48c | 1,673$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Under | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.36 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 52c | 1,036$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.72 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 51c | 929.43$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.01 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Under | 47c | 452.59$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.45 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 55c | 446$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.3 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 46c | 364$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.56 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 308.17$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.71 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 53c | 297.91$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.89 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 289.46$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.43 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 47c | 195$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.87 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Over | 55c | 125$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 44c | 109$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…8fbabacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75aa…9f2abacked Over | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 47c | 67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Under | 44c | 61.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…16d3backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 44c | 40.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 54c | 32.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Mavericks vs. HeatHeat won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.