NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x090dfc7523b5b32954e4ff7996182bb0d77f59a01aff99b71435f7cdec67be0f

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 25, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,091
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,062

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,091 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over	45c	3,048$1,366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,366.46	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd234…90b0backed Under	52c	2,200$1,144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,056	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7258…b1dbbacked Over	48c	2,200$1,056 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,056	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Under	55c	2,000$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900	288	50.3%145 W · 143 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	26c	751.07$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.42	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	55c	622.8$340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$282.65	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d4…23e8backed Under	55c	495$272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$222.75	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-2.9wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Under	55c	361.48$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.48	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	46c	247.26$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.74	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a3…4ebebacked Under	57c	199.37$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.73	42	54.8%23 W · 19 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Under	56c	178.57$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.57	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x661e…81d6backed Under	60c	140$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	157	59.9%94 W · 63 L	+9.5wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b4…1081backed Under	59c	127.12$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.12	94	57.4%54 W · 40 L	+3.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd333…2a71backed Under	56c	125$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	40	50%20 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Over	47c	111$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.17	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Under	55c	110$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.5	612	53.1%325 W · 287 L	-20.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Under	56c	100$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	46c	81.48$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.48	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over	43c	72$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.96	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Under	54c	55.56$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.56	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Under	73c	50$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	185	54.1%100 W · 85 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over	41c	49.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc76…d76dbacked Over	43c	41.86$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-3.4wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Over	39c	39.1$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3303…9266backed Under	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x50f7…7272backed Under	54c	37.03$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.03	39	69.2%27 W · 12 L	+5.6wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Over	46c	37.03$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.03	256	42.6%109 W · 147 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4e9…8f51backed Under	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Under	61c	32.79$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.79	199	57.8%115 W · 84 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…16c5backed Under	55c	27.27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.27	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-4.8wins	-0.15per pick	51cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3162…d21cbacked Under	59c	25.42$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.42	88	59.1%52 W · 36 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	45c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f9f…4b15backed Under	54c	22.22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.22	99	62.6%62 W · 37 L	+5.1wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dda…5cbbbacked Under	54c	22.22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.22	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ad7…6574backed Under	55c	21.82$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.82	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…03efbacked Under	56c	21.43$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.43	74	55.4%41 W · 33 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94db…26bbbacked Under	56c	21.41$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.42	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadd4…3ae9backed Under	59c	20.34$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.34	40	57.5%23 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd668…a01cbacked Under	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event