NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62767ff085063ee270d6462472a98bbb6066832465c6cf1aa57a621feb365095
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 42,330$20,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,705.2 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 51c | 33,159$16,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,976.22 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 51c | 7,459$3,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,804.18 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 51c | 4,000$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,030 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 53c | 3,704$1,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,948.02 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 50c | 3,687$1,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,841.44 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 51c | 3,000$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 1,981$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.66 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 50c | 1,611$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.45 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Over | 3c | 1,592$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 457 | 3.5%16 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 1,518$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.25 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 47c | 1,049$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.89 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 1,005$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.6 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…151ebacked Over | 52c | 999.99$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 960.98$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.46 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 820$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.4 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Over | 53c | 800$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 13c | 765.22$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 48c | 714$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.79 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Under | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…7873backed Over | 54c | 556$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.24 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 54c | 500$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.5 | 306 | 41.8%128 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Under | 47c | 407.89$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.18 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Under | 47c | 385$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.05 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Over | 53c | 300$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 47c | 283.15$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.07 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2c…d9c8backed Over | 50c | 272$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 48c | 218$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.83 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 237 | 48.1%114 W · 123 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Over | 20c | 170$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 303 | 48.2%146 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd9…00b1backed Over | 52c | 166$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…4ebebacked Under | 49c | 134.22$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 49c | 111$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 48c | 95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…4ed3backed Over | 51c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5681…b253backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…1fd5backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aed…bd17backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…92ecbacked Over | 52c | 37.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…1289backed Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7652…f04dbacked Over | 51c | 20.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 852 | 48.9%417 W · 435 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Mavericks vs. HeatHeat won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.