NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x329c2d0f1072631e137604aef555cca82e8f32bd68279224c21b3bfca6b7f6f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 15,702$7,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,539.69 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Under | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 52c | 5,356$2,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,567.49 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…4ebebacked Under | 50c | 1,729$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.46 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 55c | 1,275$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.45 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Under | 47c | 1,228$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.88 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 788.75$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.36 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Over | 51c | 495$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.45 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…d167backed Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48e…5d77backed Under | 50c | 380$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa82…a6c3backed Under | 50c | 370$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3139…e6e6backed Under | 50c | 356$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 51c | 333$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.17 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…16d3backed Under | 52c | 269.23$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.23 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…adf1backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 164.7$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.46 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6edb…6089backed Under | 48c | 106.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Over | 49c | 104.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Under | 49c | 100.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…86a5backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…dc93backed Over | 52c | 26.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…786cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Mavericks vs. HeatHeat won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.