NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e6e1a046229761f3e0912984e67a5fdbf7f491a14927c2bb64a2e300fcae63a

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 25, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $35,206
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $36,296

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,206 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	15,160$7,214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,213.97	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under	52c	6,000$3,120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,880	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd041…7b26backed Under	53c	5,660$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,660.38	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+2.3wins	+0.15per pick	42cpaid	+59.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x059e…4a2ebacked Under	52c	4,231$2,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,030.77	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddd9…fe8dbacked Over	49c	2,100$1,029 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,029	16	50%8 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5442…6fa7backed Under	50c	2,100$1,050 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,050	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.8wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37f1…d157backed Over	50c	2,100$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,050	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5650…ce21backed Under	51c	2,100$1,071 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,029	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Under	53c	1,466$781 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$685.8	434	53.2%231 W · 203 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9519…3b2ebacked Under	51c	1,373$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$672.55	178	56.2%100 W · 78 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	47c	1,277$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.96	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8839…8a3ebacked Over	46c	1,251$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580	74	33.8%25 W · 49 L	-8.5wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Under	53c	1,060$562 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$498.38	417	42%175 W · 242 L	-16.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over	47c	1,000$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470	362	48.9%177 W · 185 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	47c	937$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.39	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe267…ebffbacked Over	51c	800$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b02…0c1cbacked Under	49c	800$392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$408	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+2.6wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+37.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Over	46c	627$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.42	256	42.6%109 W · 147 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fd4…6ebcbacked Over	50c	500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	38	50%19 W · 19 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Under	55c	400$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180	402	43.8%176 W · 226 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6edb…6089backed Under	51c	294.44$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.44	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over	48c	287.52$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.67	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06f3…4e52backed Under	52c	286$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.28	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8148…5f30backed Over	50c	218.6$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.25	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-3.1wins	-0.39per pick	52cpaid	-76%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under	53c	200$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	617	40.7%251 W · 366 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x836e…595cbacked Over	49c	142$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.58	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69db…3050backed Under	52c	134$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.32	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c49…d703backed Under	52c	123$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.04	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Under	50c	114$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57	164	46.3%76 W · 88 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe2…d4e7backed Over	49c	111$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.39	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x655d…b758backed Over	48c	106.25$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	244	46.7%114 W · 130 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ab…f2a9backed Over	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	152	47.4%72 W · 80 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Over	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	123	42.3%52 W · 71 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7f2…9b10backed Under	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	79	53.2%42 W · 37 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b72…34e7backed Over	49c	71$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.79	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27ec…ad73backed Under	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	194	51.5%100 W · 94 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0338…4f11backed Under	52c	56.6$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.17	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under	55c	24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event