Earnings · resolved market
Will Femasys (FEMY) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a4289fef58e9e7875c7712cea7c04e1f291d210a0ec6d49bb69df9f347914fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 7cpaid | +324.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 47c | 824.58$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.37 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked Yes | 51c | 332.45$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.45 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…2339backed Yes | 49c | 329.78$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…339dbacked No | 52c | 281.11$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 49c | 264.41$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.29 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 69c | 145.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…ad47backed No | 54c | 130.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked No | 46c | 119.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 38c | 119.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9f…0bf5backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…1885backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked No | 38c | 68.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 46c | 68.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x213c…618ebacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.36per pick | 59cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…6df5backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed Yes | 46c | 46.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa960…dbebbacked No | 55c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…687ebacked No | 48c | 41.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 35c | 41.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…876cbacked No | 65c | 35.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 72c | 35.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86de…4f4ebacked No | 77c | 33.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…fb50backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…b432backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae09…6a64backed No | 53c | 28.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3412…3a3cbacked No | 61c | 27.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5d…f334backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.