NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2610b50725dca534d6faf6050df8edbabf998b9b7f694a0b020686db270711c

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Rocketsof Rockets, Suns
Resolved: Nov 25, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $31,688
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $32,375

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,688 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5d18…4972backed Suns	47c	13,500$6,410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,409.99	163	39.3%64 W · 99 L	-10.2wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Rockets	53c	5,639$2,988 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,650.17	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rockets	52c	3,445$1,779 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,666.36	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Suns	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	517	53.8%278 W · 239 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x185c…fa2fbacked Rockets	54c	2,000$1,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$920	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4a0…43cfbacked Suns	46c	2,000$920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$920	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f0b…e970backed Suns	46c	2,000$920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$920	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-3.7wins	-0.29per pick	52cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Rockets	53c	2,000$1,060 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$940	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb62…abbdbacked Rockets	54c	2,000$1,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$920	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Rockets	52c	1,996$1,038 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$957.97	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Rockets	53c	1,609$853 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$756.22	248	47.6%118 W · 130 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Rockets	53c	1,500$791 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$708.75	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Suns	47c	1,000$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470	346	45.7%158 W · 188 L	+12.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Rockets	54c	828.47$444 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384.59	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5db5…1089backed Suns	47c	715.83$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.44	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Suns	47c	705.64$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.67	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Suns	47c	670$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.94	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Rockets	52c	626.78$326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300.85	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae7…cf61backed Suns	49c	612.24$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd8d…a108backed Rockets	55c	546.05$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246.05	103	47.6%49 W · 54 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Rockets	53c	499.97$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.98	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fd4…6ebcbacked Suns	49c	489.8$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	38	50%19 W · 19 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Suns	45c	456.13$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.38	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Suns	48c	413.27$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Suns	47c	400$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188	357	49.6%177 W · 180 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Rockets	54c	400$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184	357	39.8%142 W · 215 L	-25.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rockets	52c	370$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.6	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Rockets	51c	300$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147	666	45.9%306 W · 360 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e13…732fbacked Suns	48c	250$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	66	48.5%32 W · 34 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Suns	47c	200$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e77…4505backed Rockets	52c	191.99$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.16	25	68%17 W · 8 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	59cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8839…8a3ebacked Rockets	53c	188$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.36	74	33.8%25 W · 49 L	-8.5wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x2556…b00ebacked Rockets	54c	184.57$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.57	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Rockets	52c	159.09$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.36	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Suns	46c	151.56$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.39	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Rockets	53c	145$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.15	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Rockets	51c	142.86$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	288	50.3%145 W · 143 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Suns	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Suns	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	890	50.4%449 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7c0c…6825backed Suns	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	60	58.3%35 W · 25 L	+5.3wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Suns	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	123	42.3%52 W · 71 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x48f8…9166backed Rockets	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	171	45.6%78 W · 93 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa763…709ebacked Suns	45c	83.64$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.64	198	45.5%90 W · 108 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Rockets	52c	76$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.48	344	51.5%177 W · 167 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Suns	48c	60$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Rockets	52c	60$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.8	1,028	48.5%499 W · 529 L	+27.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2c…d9c8backed Rockets	52c	59.62$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.62	12	50%6 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be8…f449backed Rockets	53c	58.75$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.71	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-5.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x833c…24f4backed Rockets	53c	50.92$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.7	61	62.3%38 W · 23 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Rockets	55c	50.91$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.91	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed Rockets	52c	50.81$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.39	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Suns	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	801	46.4%372 W · 429 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Suns	47c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	246	53.3%131 W · 115 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x895d…4970backed Suns	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	126	46.8%59 W · 67 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d3…246cbacked Suns	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	143	46.9%67 W · 76 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Suns	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	625	46.9%293 W · 332 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa9…259ebacked Suns	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	78	56.4%44 W · 34 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec1…dd29backed Rockets	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	225	56.9%128 W · 97 L	+12.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x227c…f0cbbacked Rockets	53c	37.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.56	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-4.3wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-22%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x45fb…1289backed Rockets	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	45	53.3%24 W · 21 L	+3.9wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Suns	46c	34$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.64	233	48.9%114 W · 119 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d0…01a4backed Suns	47c	31.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	146	54.8%80 W · 66 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Suns	47c	31.71$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Rockets	52c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	623	49.6%309 W · 314 L	+6.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Rockets	52c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	81	42%34 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Rockets	52c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	717	47.6%341 W · 376 L	+18.7wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Rockets	54c	27.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Rockets	54c	27.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	253	51%129 W · 124 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd4a…7f18backed Rockets	55c	27.27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.27	62	51.6%32 W · 30 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa916…4f30backed Rockets	55c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.25	158	41.1%65 W · 93 L	-12.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4131…d591backed Rockets	55c	23.64$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.64	146	50.7%74 W · 72 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Rockets	52c	22$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.56	734	45.5%334 W · 400 L	+8.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Rockets	52c	22$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.56	876	47.5%416 W · 460 L	+3.7wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Rockets	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x213c…618ebacked Suns	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97f1…c325backed Rockets	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	81	49.4%40 W · 41 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20c7…f12fbacked Rockets	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	75	46.7%35 W · 40 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Rockets (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event