NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-6.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ba68579b270c224dec150b6d9f6580332ea5156f5a0a61d1eaec641db6925ff

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Rocketsof Rockets, Suns
Resolved: Nov 25, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $53,311
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $53,304

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,311 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Suns	51c	33,319$16,993 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,992.91	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Rockets	49c	23,975$11,744 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,231.33	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rockets	49c	19,409$9,454 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,955.04	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Suns	51c	6,026$3,073 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,073.05	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdec6…1d8ebacked Suns	52c	4,000$2,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,080	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c51…60bcbacked Suns	50c	2,100$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,050	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2e5…eec3backed Rockets	50c	2,100$1,050 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,050	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1bc…9dc9backed Suns	52c	2,000$1,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,040	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-2.3wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Suns	52c	1,066$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	428	45.1%193 W · 235 L	-15.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Rockets	49c	1,020$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$520.41	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Rockets	48c	737.58$357 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$380.56	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Rockets	49c	612$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312.12	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Rockets	48c	574.52$276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$298.75	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf921…94dbbacked Suns	52c	490.21$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.91	67	49.3%33 W · 34 L	-6.7wins	-0.10per pick	59cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Rockets	49c	434.69$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$223.49	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Suns	48c	425.38$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.62	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Rockets	49c	399.97$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.98	357	39.8%142 W · 215 L	-25.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9958…9ecabacked Rockets	51c	390.87$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.87	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.8wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x694d…c5a4backed Rockets	51c	350$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.5	80	43.8%35 W · 45 L	-7.1wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc233…f731backed Rockets	51c	335.24$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.72	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa763…709ebacked Suns	49c	300$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	198	45.5%90 W · 108 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1375…4c69backed Suns	51c	293.25$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	118	39.8%47 W · 71 L	-9.2wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3576…8117backed Rockets	53c	260.85$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.85	204	44.6%91 W · 113 L	-9.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Suns	49c	213.82$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.77	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fd4…6ebcbacked Suns	50c	213.46$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.73	38	50%19 W · 19 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Rockets	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46df…b057backed Suns	52c	190.38$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	211	64.5%136 W · 75 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	64cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Rockets	50c	140$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e5…435abacked Suns	52c	120$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x655d…b758backed Rockets	49c	104.08$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.08	244	46.7%114 W · 130 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Rockets	49c	104.08$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.08	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd65d…a9e6backed Suns	51c	103.78$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.93	73	47.9%35 W · 38 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f42…c99ebacked Suns	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.30per pick	47cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3a3…d89bbacked Suns	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	93	54.8%51 W · 42 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cee…5829backed Suns	51c	73.02$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.24	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-2.6wins	-0.17per pick	57cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Suns	51c	68.63$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	377	55.7%210 W · 167 L	+11.1wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Suns	49c	58.42$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.63	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9814…a510backed Suns	52c	57.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rockets	60c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cf…cb94backed Suns	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x110d…cd01backed Rockets	51c	49.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.02	345	56.2%194 W · 151 L	+17.1wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e4e…dc93backed Rockets	50c	45.69$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.04	52	48.1%25 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeabf…97e5backed Suns	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	144	52.1%75 W · 69 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b8…3c28backed Suns	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	169	44.4%75 W · 94 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fd…8efdbacked Suns	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-10%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Suns	46c	38.7$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.69	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19a7…3ec1backed Suns	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	-5.5wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf275…7050backed Suns	49c	36.73$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	79	55.7%44 W · 35 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97f1…c325backed Rockets	51c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.7	81	49.4%40 W · 41 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x778d…8779backed Suns	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Suns	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	256	42.2%108 W · 148 L	+5.9wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Suns	51c	28.27$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.42	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef44…86a5backed Suns	55c	27.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Rockets	49c	26$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.26	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01e2…2494backed Suns	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	22	63.6%14 W · 8 L	+2.1wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Rockets (-6.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event