Earnings · resolved market
Will Bullish (BLSH) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8c3c01751b3588135c0f2cb12cadb8fc8a3421ddf386b1a8ad194d3ef04be98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,460$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…416abacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…1ed5backed Yes | 50c | 803.64$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 53c | 299.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.99 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 44c | 209.09$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 57c | 199.4$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 49c | 195$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.25 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e3…aefabacked No | 59c | 179.37$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 49c | 170$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed No | 59c | 162.06$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd88b…c56bbacked Yes | 67c | 149.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 74cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 37c | 103.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…4535backed No | 26c | 102.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.91 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4f…c6c6backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e98…a8e6backed No | 56c | 71.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 49c | 67.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 32c | 56.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…b8f1backed Yes | 39c | 55.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213c…618ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.36per pick | 59cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…d85fbacked No | 61c | 41.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fa…949ebacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…061bbacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 49c | 30.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ef…66bcbacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafd1…8f9cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 49c | 24.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…064fbacked No | 45c | 23.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked No | 60c | 20.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d4…da34backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…ed8dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…8aacbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e2…73bebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…6194backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked No | 59c | 18.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.